Thursday, July 13, 2006

The Fallacy Of Following Finance Gurus

Finance Gurus tend to cluster around inaccuracies.

It is so safe when you are wrong and can claim "so was everyone else." Economists, market analysts, and their ilk will still get their paychecks - you however may lose your nest egg if you listen to them.

Your future may depend on your seeing the world more clearly than mere economists can imagine from the distance of their ivy covered towers.

Two names that many of you will recognize, Taleb and Mandelbrot, put together an article last year that challenges many soothing scenarios spewed by pseudo- scientific soothsayers.

I found this on the entry page to the College Of Human Interaction at Bastiat Free University. BFU, Taleb, and Mandelbrot all like to pop the balloons of
soft sciences like economics that try to derive credibility from obtuse math.

The point for you of course is that it is safer to speculate and embrace risk than try to escape risk by following the investing alchemists of finance that pronounce long term investing as safe.

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